Mladost Lucani 1-3 Novi Pazar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 20 Dec 2024

📅20/12/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+2.8pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.8pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.6pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mladost Lucani EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 40%
+17% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -20%
1.24/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.22
+14% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
22.1 Crosses 15.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mladost Lucani
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Novi Pazar
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.28 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
257 Passes 284
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 3
17.08.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 0-1 HT 0-1 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
03.03.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 0-0 HT 0-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
23.09.2023 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 2-0 HT 2-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
31.03.2023 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 1-3 HT 1-1 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
30.09.2022 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 3-1 HT 1-1 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
14.03.2022 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 0-0 HT 0-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mladost Lucani
1-3
AWAY Novi Pazar
1.98 xG 1.06
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 3
405 Passes 235
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mladost Lucani vs Novi Pazar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novi Pazar saw off Mladost Lucani 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Novi Pazar found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mladost Lucani had 61% of the ball to Novi Pazar's 39%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.98 to 1.06 — on chances, Mladost Lucani could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mladost Lucani and 1.00 for Novi Pazar.

What was the final score of Mladost Lucani vs Novi Pazar?

Mladost Lucani 1-3 Novi Pazar in the Serbia - Super League on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mladost Lucani vs Novi Pazar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mladost Lucani win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Mladost Lucani 37%, draw 26%, Novi Pazar 37%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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