Paderborn 0-1 Greuther Fürth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 21 Jan 2024

Paderborn
0-1 HT 0-1
Greuther Fürth
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Paderborn vs Greuther Fürth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.19
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.45
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.9
6+ Goals
11%
8.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.13
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
9%
12.2
X/1
15%
5.35
X/2
12%
6.35
X/X
9%
5.19
2/1
8%
23.85
2/2
14%
3.98
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
12.3
Value flag · 2/X at 12.3 — our 12% vs market 5.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.2pp
31%
Draw
25%
+5.3pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.4pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paderborn v Greuther Fürth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -25%
1.73/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.51
+18% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
294 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 75%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
18.2 Crosses 18.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Paderborn vs Greuther Fürth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Greuther Fürth
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.53 xG 1.97
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
334 Passes 328
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.07.2023 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 5-0 HT 3-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
02.04.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 3-2 HT 1-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
18.09.2022 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-1 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
16.05.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 2-4 HT 2-2 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
15.01.2021 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 1-1 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
02.02.2019 Paderborn Paderborn 6-0 HT 3-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2

Paderborn 0-1 Greuther Fürth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
0-1
AWAY Greuther Fürth
2.67 xG 1.37
75% Ball Possession 25%
17 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
677 Passes 182
89% Pass Accuracy 72%
38 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Greuther Fürth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greuther Fürth edged past Paderborn 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 32%) promised a tight game; Greuther Fürth found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Paderborn had 75% of the ball to Greuther Fürth's 25%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 2.67 to 1.37 — on chances, Paderborn could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Greuther Fürth led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Paderborn and 2.33 for Greuther Fürth.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Greuther Fürth?

Paderborn 0-1 Greuther Fürth in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Greuther Fürth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 37%, draw 31%, Greuther Fürth 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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