Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 St. Truidense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 21 Jan 2024

Union Saint-Gilloise
2-1 HT 1-1
St. Truidense
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2025/2026

Union Saint-Gilloise vs St. Truidense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.39
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.45
6+ Goals
12%
13.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.45 — our 25% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.86
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
17.35
X/1
17%
3.55
X/2
8%
12.3
X/X
8%
5.52
2/1
11%
23.85
2/2
11%
10.2
2/X
7%
18.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
62%
-5.9pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.7pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.7pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Saint-Gilloise v St. Truidense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Truidense EU Bookmakers 19%
-9% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.90/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.72
-2% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
440 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 71%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
20.4 Crosses 12.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Union Saint-Gilloise vs St. Truidense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
3W-1D-2L
AWAY St. Truidense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.85 xG 0.91
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
346 Passes 312
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.10.2023 St. Truidense St. Truidense 0-4 HT 0-2 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
02.04.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 0-0 St. Truidense St. Truidense BEL
23.07.2022 St. Truidense St. Truidense 1-1 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
13.02.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-1 HT 0-0 St. Truidense St. Truidense BEL
03.12.2021 St. Truidense St. Truidense 1-2 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
13.05.2017 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-4 HT 0-2 St. Truidense St. Truidense BEL
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs St. Truidense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise nicked a narrow win over St. Truidense 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.33 for St. Truidense.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs St. Truidense?

Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 St. Truidense in the Belgium - Pro League on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs St. Truidense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 57%, draw 20%, St. Truidense 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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