21/01/2024
·
22:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-2
2nd Score
2-1
Náutico MS vs Kosta Rika Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
Over Pick
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Total Goals
0-1
20%
2-3
50%
4-5
21%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
21%
X/X
4%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
37%
Home Win
30%
16%
Draw
29%
47%
Away Win
41%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Náutico MS v Kosta Rika — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Náutico MS
The Market 34%
Head to Head
AWAY
Kosta Rika
The Market 45%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-6% /
-6%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+8%
/
+33%
46%
Ball Possession
54%
11
Total Shots
14
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
321 · 77%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
428 · 83%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Náutico MS vs Kosta Rika
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Kosta Rika got the better of Náutico MS 3-1 away from home.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Kosta Rika as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.
What was the final score of Náutico MS vs Kosta Rika?
Náutico MS 1-3 Kosta Rika in the Brazil - Sul-Matogrossense on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Náutico MS vs Kosta Rika?
Before kick-off our model rated an Kosta Rika win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Náutico MS 37%, draw 16%, Kosta Rika 47%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kosta Rika), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Kosta Rika)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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BRSMAT
More Brazil - Sul-Matogrossense
21 Jan 2024