Ajax 4-1 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.34
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
3.46
Over 2.5
57%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.55
No
52%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
8.08
2-3 Goals
38%
2.31
4-5 Goals
28%
2.37
6+ Goals
13%
4.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.52
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
19.5
X/1
14%
3.84
X/2
5%
17.35
X/X
8%
9.42
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
17.9
2/2
11%
11.1
2/X
7%
19.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.9 — our 8% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
70%
-12.6pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.0pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+8.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
25%
+17.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
75%
-17.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.0pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -3%
3.11/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/2.16
+30% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +18%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
425 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
52.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
25.5 Crosses 13.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
6W-0D-0L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
3.06 xG 1.09
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
557 Passes 213
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
52 Box Touches 18
29 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.12.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-3 HT 1-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
30.09.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-3 HT 1-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
12.02.2023 Ajax Ajax 3-1 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
22.10.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-4 HT 1-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
06.03.2022 Ajax Ajax 3-2 HT 2-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
21.11.2021 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-5 HT 0-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
4-1
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
2.44 xG 1.41
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 0
664 Passes 264
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
44 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ajax vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax ran out comfortable winners over RKC Waalwijk 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ajax had 68% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 32%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.44 to 1.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Ajax and 1.33 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of Ajax vs RKC Waalwijk?

Ajax 4-1 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Ajax 58%, draw 21%, RKC Waalwijk 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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