Deportes Tolima 1-2 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.16
No
56%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
55%
-7.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+6.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.3pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.53/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.00
+2% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +39%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 74%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.2 Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 5
268 Passes 233
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
31.03.2014 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
1-2
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
3.24 xG 1.11
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
419 Passes 223
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
37 Box Touches 6
19 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza CEIF squeezed past Deportes Tolima 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Deportes Tolima at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 64% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 36%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 3.24 to 1.11 — the balance of chances actually favoured Deportes Tolima.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Deportes Tolima 1-2 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 47%, draw 28%, Fortaleza CEIF 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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