Once Caldas 2-1 Boyaca Chico — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.6
Over 2.5
35%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-6.6pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.2pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.5pp
65%
Under 2.5
59%
+6.1pp
35%
Over 2.5
41%
-6.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.8pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Boyaca Chico EU Bookmakers 26%
-5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.22/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.05
-6% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 73%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
20.2 Crosses 16.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Boyaca Chico
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.56 xG 0.81
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
338 Passes 226
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.10.2023 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico 2-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
26.04.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 0-1 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico KOL
28.03.2021 Once Caldas Once Caldas 4-2 HT 2-2 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico KOL
18.10.2020 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico 1-1 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
26.08.2018 Once Caldas Once Caldas 3-1 HT 1-1 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico KOL
03.03.2018 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico 2-2 HT 2-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
2-1
AWAY Boyaca Chico
0.56 xG 1.82
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
170 Passes 331
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
7 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Boyaca Chico
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas nicked a narrow win over Boyaca Chico 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Once Caldas had 36% of the ball to Boyaca Chico's 64%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 0.56 to 1.82 — on chances, Boyaca Chico could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Once Caldas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Once Caldas and 1.50 for Boyaca Chico.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Boyaca Chico?

Once Caldas 2-1 Boyaca Chico in the Colombia - Primera on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Boyaca Chico?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 43%, draw 31%, Boyaca Chico 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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