Toluca vs Mazatlan Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Mazatlan — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Mazatlan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Toluca
MEK
4-1
HT 2-1
Mazatlan
MEK
1-1
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
1-2
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
2-2
HT 2-2
Mazatlan
MEK
4-1
HT 3-0
Mazatlan
MEK
Toluca 4-1 Mazatlan — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca cruised past Mazatlan 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.
On the day, Toluca had 60% of the ball to Mazatlan's 40%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.68 to 2.04.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Toluca and 1.17 for Mazatlan.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Mazatlan?
Toluca 4-1 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Mazatlan?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Toluca 51%, draw 24%, Mazatlan 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.