Portimonense 0-2 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Jan 2024

Portimonense
0-2 HT 0-1
Gil Vicente
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Portimonense vs Gil Vicente Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.19
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 28% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.58
1/2
8%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
16%
5.36
X/2
11%
5.71
X/X
11%
4.39
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
13%
3.91
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.0pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.3pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Portimonense v Gil Vicente — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portimonense EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 38%
+3% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -38%
1.38/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.36
-14% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
20.3 Crosses 20.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Portimonense vs Gil Vicente Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portimonense
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.25 xG 1.47
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
308 Passes 442
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 5-0 HT 2-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
23.04.2023 Portimonense Portimonense 1-0 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
14.12.2022 Portimonense Portimonense 0-3 HT 0-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente PORLC
04.11.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-2 HT 1-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR
23.01.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-0 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
15.08.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 0-1 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR

Portimonense 0-2 Gil Vicente — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portimonense
0-2
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.17 xG 1.53
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 14
0 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
290 Passes 363
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
7 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portimonense vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente got the better of Portimonense 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Portimonense at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Portimonense had 46% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 54%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.17 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gil Vicente led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Portimonense and 1.83 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Portimonense vs Gil Vicente?

Portimonense 0-2 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portimonense win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 41%, draw 28%, Gil Vicente 32%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Portimonense), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Portimonense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
21 Jan 2024
21:00 Chaves vs Rio Ave Analysis →
23:30 Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estrela Analysis →