Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.23
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.6
6+ Goals
9%
14.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.6 — our 29% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.05
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.75
X/1
15%
3.73
X/2
7%
10.35
X/X
10%
5.06
2/1
11%
23.85
2/2
8%
8.44
2/X
7%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
57%
+0.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.3pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+1.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.8pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.79/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.92
+10% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +89%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
22.0 Crosses 15.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Estrela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.69 xG 0.39
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 0
10 Corners 3
391 Passes 338
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.08.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
3-0
AWAY Estrela
1.71 xG 0.40
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 5
304 Passes 308
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes cruised past Estrela 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 49% of the ball to Estrela's 51%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.71 to 0.40.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estrela?

Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 58%, draw 22%, Estrela 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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