Fenerbahçe 1-1 Samsunspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.28
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.63
Over 2.5
58%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.22
2-3 Goals
37%
2.1
4-5 Goals
29%
2.56
6+ Goals
12%
5.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.39
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
9%
24.7
X/1
14%
3.53
X/2
7%
23.45
X/X
7%
9.38
2/1
7%
21.3
2/2
6%
16.9
2/X
5%
23.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
74%
-12.4pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.5pp
18%
Away Win
10%
+7.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
34%
+8.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
66%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 12%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -9%
2.34/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.16
+20% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -24%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
433 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 76%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
20.4 Crosses 11.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Samsunspor
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.70 xG 0.12
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
395 Passes 233
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.08.2023 Samsunspor Samsunspor 0-2 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
21.03.2012 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3-0 HT 3-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
02.02.2012 Samsunspor Samsunspor 3-1 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
23.10.2011 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-0 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
16.01.2011 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-0 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor HAZ
11.02.2006 Samsunspor Samsunspor 0-5 HT 0-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
1-1
AWAY Samsunspor
2.54 xG 0.34
66% Ball Possession 34%
24 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
450 Passes 201
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
41 Box Touches 7
32 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Fenerbahçe at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 66% of the ball to Samsunspor's 34%, shots finished 24-7, expected goals 2.54 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.50 for Samsunspor.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?

Fenerbahçe 1-1 Samsunspor in the Turkey - Super League on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 62%, draw 21%, Samsunspor 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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