Chesham United 2-2 Chelmsford City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 21 Jan 2025

📅21/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
24%
3.51
6+ Goals
9%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 28% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.6pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesham United EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelmsford City EU Bookmakers 39%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.31/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.12
-1% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
258 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesham United
2-2
AWAY Chelmsford City
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chesham United vs Chelmsford City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesham United and Chelmsford City shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Chesham United had 47% of the ball to Chelmsford City's 53%, shots finished 9-8.

What was the final score of Chesham United vs Chelmsford City?

Chesham United 2-2 Chelmsford City in the England - Conference on 21/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesham United vs Chelmsford City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesham United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Chesham United 38%, draw 27%, Chelmsford City 35%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chesham United) ✗ BTTS No
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