Panathinaikos 1-2 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Cup, 21 Feb 2024

Panathinaikos
1-2 HT 0-0
PAOK
📅21/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Greece - Cup – 2023/2024

Panathinaikos vs PAOK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.75
Over 2.5
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
1.81
No
67%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.93
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
3.98
6+ Goals
7%
18.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 35% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.22
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
15%
4.81
X/2
7%
6.21
X/X
16%
4.3
2/1
5%
28.5
2/2
19%
4.6
2/X
5%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+7.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-7.2pp
33%
BTTS Yes
51%
-17.9pp
67%
BTTS No
49%
+17.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Panathinaikos v PAOK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.07/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.84
-6% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +34%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
384 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.6 Yellow Cards 5.1

Panathinaikos vs PAOK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Panathinaikos
2W-3D-1L
AWAY PAOK
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.40 xG 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
348 Passes 298
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUK
28.01.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-1 HT 1-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
01.10.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-2 HT 1-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
03.05.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-1 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
23.04.2023 PAOK PAOK 1-2 HT 0-1 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
26.01.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-1 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUK

Panathinaikos 1-2 PAOK — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Panathinaikos
1-2
AWAY PAOK
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Panathinaikos vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK squeezed past Panathinaikos 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; PAOK found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (67%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Panathinaikos had 52% of the ball to PAOK's 48%, shots finished 12-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Panathinaikos had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.17 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Panathinaikos vs PAOK?

Panathinaikos 1-2 PAOK in the Greece - Cup on 21/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Panathinaikos vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Panathinaikos win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Panathinaikos 38%, draw 27%, PAOK 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Panathinaikos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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