Celta Vigo 1-0 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 21 Feb 2025

📅21/02/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.72
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.12
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 28% vs market 25.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.1
X/1
16%
4.2
X/2
9%
9.67
X/X
10%
4.87
2/1
7%
24.3
2/2
12%
7.9
2/X
12%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
54%
-12.2pp
31%
Draw
25%
+5.7pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.9pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -13%
1.60/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.29
+10% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +2%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
397 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 70%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
18.7 Crosses 18.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Osasuna
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.13 xG 0.80
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
328 Passes 390
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 3-2 HT 2-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
04.02.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 0-3 HT 0-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
13.08.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-2 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
06.03.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
05.11.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-2 HT 1-2 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
19.01.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-0 HT 2-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
1-0
AWAY Osasuna
1.83 xG 1.21
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
405 Passes 451
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo nicked a narrow win over Osasuna 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Celta Vigo as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 46% of the ball to Osasuna's 54%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.83 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osasuna led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.17 for Osasuna.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

Celta Vigo 1-0 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 21/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 42%, draw 31%, Osasuna 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →