Osasuna 3-2 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.75
Over 2.5
51%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.0
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.89
6+ Goals
10%
17.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.45
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
10%
12.85
X/1
12%
5.15
X/2
12%
5.99
X/X
10%
4.23
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
16%
4.27
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
53%
-4.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
47%
+4.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.0pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 36%
+5% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
1.27/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.41
-17% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
305 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 76%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
23.3 Crosses 16.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Celta Vigo
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.98 xG 0.88
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
380 Passes 330
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.02.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 0-3 HT 0-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
13.08.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-2 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
06.03.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
05.11.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-2 HT 1-2 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
19.01.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-0 HT 2-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
23.08.2021 Osasuna Osasuna 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
3-2
AWAY Celta Vigo
0.96 xG 1.69
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
376 Passes 380
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna nicked a narrow win over Celta Vigo 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Osasuna made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Osasuna had 50% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 50%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.96 to 1.69 — the balance of chances actually favoured Celta Vigo.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Osasuna and 1.00 for Celta Vigo.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?

Osasuna 3-2 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osasuna win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 39%, draw 26%, Celta Vigo 35%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osasuna), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Osasuna) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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