Freiburg 5-0 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Feb 2025

📅21/02/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
1.9
Over Pick
54%
1.85
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.72
No
46%
2.0
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.27
2-3
39%
1.76
4-5
26%
3.39
6+
11%
12.95
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.39 — our 26% vs market 23.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.66
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
12.75
X/1
18%
4.7
X/2
7%
7.71
X/X
13%
4.68
2/1
11%
24.3
2/2
17%
5.74
2/X
8%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.3 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg The Market 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen The Market 29%
+6% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.91/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.58
+5% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 74%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
21.5 Crosses 17.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.55 xG 1.24
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
403 Passes 358
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
27.01.2024 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 3-1 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
26.08.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
16.04.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
22.10.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
13.02.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
5-0
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.84 xG 1.25
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
261 Passes 524
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 0
REVIEW Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Freiburg made light work of Werder Bremen 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 54%, coin-flips both. If anything the market was more convinced: the under-2.5 price stood at 1.90, roughly 53%.

On the day, Freiburg had 36% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 64%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.84 to 1.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Freiburg and 0.67 for Werder Bremen.

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Result & Final Score

Freiburg 5-0 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 44%, draw 27%, Werder Bremen 29%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →