Werder Bremen 0-1 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 5 Oct 2024

Werder Bremen
0-1 HT 0-0
Freiburg
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Werder Bremen vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.95
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.13
6+ Goals
11%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.66
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
26.5
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
15%
5.81
X/2
16%
5.72
X/X
12%
4.88
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
14%
3.58
2/X
8%
12.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 6% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.2pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Werder Bremen v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 40%
-8% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.46/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.42
+4% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +23%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
16.8 Crosses 16.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Werder Bremen vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Freiburg
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.33 xG 1.61
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
311 Passes 417
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 3-1 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
26.08.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
16.04.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
22.10.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
13.02.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
17.10.2020 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1

Werder Bremen 0-1 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
0-1
AWAY Freiburg
1.01 xG 1.04
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
521 Passes 357
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg nicked a narrow win over Werder Bremen 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Freiburg found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 58% of the ball to Freiburg's 42%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.01 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.17 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Freiburg?

Werder Bremen 0-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 37%, draw 27%, Freiburg 36%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✗ BTTS Yes
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