St. Pauli 0-3 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 5 Oct 2024

St. Pauli
0-3 HT 0-2
Mainz 05
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

St. Pauli vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.31
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.57
6+ Goals
14%
14.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.57 — our 25% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.95
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
19%
4.78
X/2
8%
6.84
X/X
13%
4.5
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
16%
4.91
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.4pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Pauli v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 32%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -16%
1.21/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.76
-95% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 73%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
23.0 Crosses 15.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

St. Pauli vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
11 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
The Meetings
14.05.2011 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
18.12.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-4 HT 1-3 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
10.05.2009 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL2
23.11.2008 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-2 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
18.05.2008 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 5-1 HT 3-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
14.12.2007 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL2

St. Pauli 0-3 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
0-3
AWAY Mainz 05
1.09 xG 1.10
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
399 Passes 320
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 8
25 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 cruised past St. Pauli 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Mainz 05 found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, St. Pauli had 55% of the ball to Mainz 05's 45%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.09 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for St. Pauli and 2.17 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Mainz 05?

St. Pauli 0-3 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 39%, draw 28%, Mainz 05 33%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (St. Pauli), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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