Union Berlin 2-1 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
45%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.64
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
10%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 27% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.35
1/2
9%
24.0
1/X
5%
13.6
X/1
11%
7.47
X/2
11%
4.53
X/X
11%
4.91
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.65
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+4.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
45%
Away Win
47%
-2.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.5pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 51%
+15% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.17/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.36
-9% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +14%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
280 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 499 · 84%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
17.0 Crosses 14.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.33 xG 1.66
34% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
235 Passes 553
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
07.10.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4-2 HT 1-2 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
08.04.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-1 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
16.10.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-0 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
13.02.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-3 HT 0-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
19.09.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4-2 HT 2-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
2-1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
33% Ball Possession 67%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
187 Passes 489
67% Pass Accuracy 83%
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin edged past Borussia Dortmund 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was Borussia Dortmund at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 33% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 67%, shots finished 14-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Union Berlin and 2.50 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

Union Berlin 2-1 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 31%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 45%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ BTTS No
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