Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.78
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
4.67
Over 2.5
68%
1.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
12.0
2-3 Goals
36%
2.77
4-5 Goals
28%
2.3
6+ Goals
21%
3.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.15
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
34.5
X/1
12%
3.8
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X
7%
17.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
21.1
2/2
5%
34.0
2/X
6%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 14% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
82%
-15.8pp
18%
Draw
10%
+7.8pp
15%
Away Win
7%
+8.1pp
32%
Under 2.5
18%
+14.2pp
68%
Over 2.5
82%
-14.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.2pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+8% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
554 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 75%
38.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.1 Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-2
AWAY Holstein Kiel
2.08 xG 1.65
74% Ball Possession 26%
23 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 3
732 Passes 208
92% Pass Accuracy 74%
54 Box Touches 12
37 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen and Holstein Kiel couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bayer Leverkusen at 67% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (68%) came in.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 74% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 26%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 2.08 to 1.65.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Holstein Kiel?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 67%, draw 18%, Holstein Kiel 15%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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