MTK Budapest 4-0 Diosgyor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 21 Feb 2025

📅21/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.32
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
11.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.23 — our 26% vs market 24.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.7pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Diosgyor EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.80/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.52
+0% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
296 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
17.6 Crosses 19.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MTK Budapest
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Diosgyor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.96 xG 1.32
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
326 Passes 430
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Diosgyor Diosgyor 0-2 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
14.04.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-1 HT 1-0 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC
16.12.2023 Diosgyor Diosgyor 3-3 HT 1-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
02.09.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 2-1 HT 1-0 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC
13.03.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 4-2 HT 2-0 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC2
12.09.2022 Diosgyor Diosgyor 3-0 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MTK Budapest
4-0
AWAY Diosgyor
2.39 xG 0.53
46% Ball Possession 54%
22 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
305 Passes 354
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MTK Budapest vs Diosgyor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MTK Budapest ran out comfortable winners over Diosgyor 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day MTK Budapest made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, MTK Budapest had 46% of the ball to Diosgyor's 54%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.39 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MTK Budapest had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for MTK Budapest and 1.67 for Diosgyor.

What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs Diosgyor?

MTK Budapest 4-0 Diosgyor in the Hungary - NB I on 21/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs Diosgyor?

Before kick-off our model rated a MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 40%, draw 26%, Diosgyor 34%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MTK Budapest), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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