21/03/2024
·
12:10
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-0
2nd Score
1-0
Avustralya vs Lübnan Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.25
— our 26% vs market 11.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
24%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
💡 For the risk lovers:
Home Win
★★★
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
80%
23%
Draw
13%
16%
Away Win
7%
51%
Under 2.5
35%
49%
Over 2.5
65%
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
60%
BTTS No
60%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Avustralya v Lübnan — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Avustralya
EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY
Lübnan
EU Bookmakers 9%
+7% /
+8%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+6% /
+6%
4.80/0.36
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.27/1.45
+60%
/
+37%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
+150%
62%
Ball Possession
38%
17
Total Shots
7
6
Shots on Target
3
8
Corners
3
476 · 85%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
240 · 73%
47.0
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
7.9
30.9
Crosses
6.8
1.4
Yellow Cards
2.5
Avustralya vs Lübnan Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Avustralya
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Lübnan
3.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
1.95
xG
0.55
65%
Ball Possession
35%
21
Total Shots
7
7
Shots on Target
0
11
Corners
1
457
Passes
218
87%
Pass Accuracy
76%
50
Box Touches
10
33
Crosses
8
1
Yellow Cards
1
The Meetings
20.11.2018
Avustralya
3-0
HT 2-0
Lübnan
HAZ
3-0
HT 2-0
Lübnan
HAZ
Avustralya 2-0 Lübnan — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Avustralya
2-0
AWAY
Lübnan
0.38
xG
0.39
64%
Ball Possession
36%
10
Total Shots
6
6
Shots on Target
3
9
Corners
1
553
Passes
274
88%
Pass Accuracy
78%
28
Box Touches
10
20
Crosses
14
2
Yellow Cards
0
FAQ
Avustralya vs Lübnan
Match summary & frequently asked questions
Avustralya beat Lübnan 2-0 in the World Cup Qualifiers on 21 Mar 2024. Half-time: 1-0.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams scoring was against the odds at 40%.
On the day, Avustralya had 64% of the ball to Lübnan's 36%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 0.38 to 0.39.
What was the final score of Avustralya vs Lübnan?
Avustralya 2-0 Lübnan in the World Cup Qualifiers on 21/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Avustralya vs Lübnan?
Before kick-off our model rated a Avustralya win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Avustralya 61%, draw 23%, Lübnan 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avustralya), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Avustralya)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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DKE
More World Cup Qualifiers
21 Mar 2024