Leones Negros Udeg vs Monarcas Morelia Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Leones Negros Udeg v Monarcas Morelia — Team-Based Signals
Leones Negros Udeg vs Monarcas Morelia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 2-0
Monarcas Morelia
MEK2
2-1
HT 2-1
Leones Negros Udeg
MEK2
0-0
HT 0-0
Monarcas Morelia
MEK2
0-1
HT 0-0
Monarcas Morelia
MEK2
Leones Negros Udeg squeezed past Monarcas Morelia 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Leones Negros Udeg as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%) came in.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 0.50 for Monarcas Morelia.
What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs Monarcas Morelia?
Leones Negros Udeg 2-1 Monarcas Morelia in the Mexico - Primera A on 21/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs Monarcas Morelia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 48%, draw 25%, Monarcas Morelia 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.