Zürich 2-1 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 21 Mar 2026

Zürich
2-1 HT 1-1
Thun
📅21/03/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Zürich vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.48
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
59%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.06
2-3 Goals
36%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.61
6+ Goals
17%
6.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.84
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
19.3
1/X
5%
15.55
X/1
6%
10.95
X/2
14%
4.36
X/X
10%
6.52
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
37%
1.92
2/X
5%
14.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.3 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
20%
+1.4pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.7pp
59%
Away Win
59%
+0.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.1pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Zürich v Thun — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zürich EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 62%
-12% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.80/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/0.60
-5% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +101% / +80%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 81%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 45.3
17.2 Crosses 25.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 0.7

Zürich vs Thun Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zürich
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Thun
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.57 xG 2.45
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
301 Passes 314
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.12.2025 Thun Thun 4-2 HT 0-2 Zürich Zürich İSV
23.08.2025 Zürich Zürich 0-4 HT 0-2 Thun Thun İSV
03.08.2020 Zürich Zürich 3-3 HT 2-0 Thun Thun İSV
01.07.2020 Thun Thun 3-2 HT 3-2 Zürich Zürich İSV
02.11.2019 Thun Thun 0-1 HT 0-1 Zürich Zürich İSV
22.09.2019 Zürich Zürich 2-0 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV

Zürich 2-1 Thun — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zürich
2-1
AWAY Thun
0.88 xG 1.91
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
157 Passes 240
57% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 44
9 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zürich vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zürich edged past Thun 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Thun carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Zürich had 43% of the ball to Thun's 57%, shots finished 8-21, expected goals 0.88 to 1.91 — on chances, Thun could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Thun led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Zürich and 2.33 for Thun.

What was the final score of Zürich vs Thun?

Zürich 2-1 Thun in the Switzerland - Super League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zürich vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated an Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Zürich 21%, draw 20%, Thun 59%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Thun) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Thun) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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