Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Mar 2026

📅21/03/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
69%
1.45
Draw
18%
4.34
Away
13%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
2.23
Over
61%
1.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
18%
4.26
2-3
43%
1.85
4-5
29%
2.83
6+
10%
8.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1.74
1/2
1%
34.0
1/X
4%
16.7
X/1
20%
3.93
X/2
5%
12.85
X/X
10%
6.69
2/1
4%
20.35
2/2
7%
10.3
2/X
4%
18.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 4% vs market 2.5%. Landed.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Borussia Dortmund The Market 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg The Market 19%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Weak
2.48 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.87
0.91 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.76
Great Attack Strength Bad
Strong Defense Strength Strong
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
437 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 71%
30 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Hamburg
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.52 xG 0.48
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
458 Passes 266
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 2
08.11.2025 Hamburg Hamburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
10.02.2018 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-0 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
20.09.2017 Hamburg Hamburg 0-3 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
04.04.2017 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-0 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
05.11.2016 Hamburg Hamburg 2-5 HT 0-3 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
17.04.2016 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-0 HT 2-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3 - 2
AWAY Hamburg
68% Ball Possession 32%
24 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 3
460 Passes 183
87% Pass Accuracy 71%
REVIEW Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Borussia Dortmund came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Hamburg 3-2. The 0-2 half-time score told a different story — this one turned on its head late. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.

As we said in the preview, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (61%) came home.

Under the surface, Borussia Dortmund had 68% of the ball to Hamburg's 32%, shots finished 24-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.50 for Hamburg.

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg Result & Final Score

Borussia Dortmund 3 - 2 Hamburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 69%, draw 18%, Hamburg 13%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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