Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aston Villa v Bournemouth — Team-Based Signals
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-1
Aston Villa
İNP
3-0
HT 1-0
Bournemouth
İNP
2-0
HT 1-0
Aston Villa
İNP
2-1
HT 2-0
Aston Villa
İNP
1-2
HT 0-2
Bournemouth
İNP
1-2
HT 0-1
Bournemouth
İNP
Aston Villa 3-1 Bournemouth — Actual Match Statistics
Aston Villa beat Bournemouth 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Aston Villa had 56% of the ball to Bournemouth's 44%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 2.51 to 1.77.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bournemouth led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aston Villa and 1.67 for Bournemouth.
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Aston Villa 3-1 Bournemouth in the England - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 45%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.