Fulham 1-3 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.75
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
50%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.6
2-3 Goals
41%
2.02
4-5 Goals
26%
2.63
6+ Goals
13%
6.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.23
1/2
8%
19.4
1/X
5%
14.7
X/1
8%
9.56
X/2
19%
4.28
X/X
10%
6.62
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.1
2/X
7%
14.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
23%
+5.3pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.1pp
50%
Away Win
55%
-5.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.5pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fulham EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 59%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
1.18/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/1.25
-29% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -10%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 83%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.9
22.3 Crosses 19.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fulham
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Liverpool
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.98 xG 1.45
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
292 Passes 512
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.01.2024 Fulham Fulham 1-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNLK
10.01.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 0-1 Fulham Fulham İNLK
03.12.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 4-3 HT 2-2 Fulham Fulham İNP
03.05.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 1-0 HT 1-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
06.08.2022 Fulham Fulham 2-2 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
07.03.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 0-1 HT 0-1 Fulham Fulham İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fulham
1-3
AWAY Liverpool
0.80 xG 1.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 4
331 Passes 566
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fulham vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool saw off Fulham 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Fulham had 40% of the ball to Liverpool's 60%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.80 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fulham and 1.67 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Fulham vs Liverpool?

Fulham 1-3 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fulham vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fulham 28%, draw 22%, Liverpool 50%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
21 Apr 2024
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