Almeria 1-2 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.51
Over 2.5
51%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
5.61
2-3 Goals
35%
2.02
4-5 Goals
25%
2.63
6+ Goals
13%
6.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.68
1/2
6%
20.65
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
13%
7.58
X/2
16%
4.87
X/X
13%
6.1
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
21%
2.56
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.6pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-2.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
36%
+13.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
64%
-13.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.7pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 51%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.73/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.14
+23% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +38%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
20.9 Crosses 13.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Villarreal
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.99 xG 2.36
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
252 Passes 437
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
04.03.2023 Almeria Almeria 0-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
23.10.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
05.12.2018 Villarreal Villarreal 8-0 HT 4-0 Almeria Almeria İSPK
01.11.2018 Almeria Almeria 3-3 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İSPK
15.03.2015 Almeria Almeria 0-0 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
1-2
AWAY Villarreal
1.84 xG 1.62
57% Ball Possession 43%
24 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
448 Passes 326
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 28
23 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal squeezed past Almeria 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Almeria had 57% of the ball to Villarreal's 43%, shots finished 24-11, expected goals 1.84 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Almeria and 2.83 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Villarreal?

Almeria 1-2 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Almeria 29%, draw 27%, Villarreal 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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