Real Madrid 3-2 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 21 Apr 2024

Real Madrid
3-2 HT 1-1
Barcelona
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.59
Over 2.5
45%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.46
No
52%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.81
2-3 Goals
42%
2.04
4-5 Goals
22%
2.6
6+ Goals
8%
5.98
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.81 — our 28% vs market 12.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
17%
4.49
X/2
8%
9.26
X/X
13%
6.35
2/1
9%
19.75
2/2
11%
5.88
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.1pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.7pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
35%
+19.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
65%
-19.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
64%
-16.4pp
52%
BTTS No
36%
+16.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 27%
+13% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +11%
1.56/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/0.92
+11% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +90% / +19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
18.3 Crosses 12.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Barcelona
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.70 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
445 Passes 442
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
30 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
14.01.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-1 HT 3-1 Barcelona Barcelona İSSK
28.10.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-2 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
30.07.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 3-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid HAZ
05.04.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 0-4 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
19.03.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 2-1 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.03.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İSPK

Real Madrid 3-2 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
3-2
AWAY Barcelona
2.34 xG 1.37
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
420 Passes 476
88% Pass Accuracy 90%
27 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid squeezed past Barcelona 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Madrid had 47% of the ball to Barcelona's 53%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 2.34 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Real Madrid and 1.33 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Barcelona?

Real Madrid 3-2 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 47%, draw 28%, Barcelona 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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