Monza 1-2 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 21 Apr 2024

Monza
1-2 HT 0-1
Atalanta
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Monza vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
49%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.52
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 25% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.74
1/2
7%
23.6
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
8%
7.75
X/2
15%
4.29
X/X
9%
5.02
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.52
2/X
8%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
26%
+1.8pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.4pp
49%
Away Win
50%
-0.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monza v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 54%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.09/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.99
-21% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +21%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
266 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 83%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
16.7 Crosses 19.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Monza vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Atalanta
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
0.71 xG 2.42
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
527 Passes 335
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 35
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 3-0 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA
04.06.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 5-2 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA
05.09.2022 Monza Monza 0-2 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA

Monza 1-2 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
1-2
AWAY Atalanta
1.12 xG 1.51
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
468 Passes 300
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monza vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta squeezed past Monza 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Monza had 58% of the ball to Atalanta's 42%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.12 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Monza and 3.33 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Monza vs Atalanta?

Monza 1-2 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Monza 27%, draw 23%, Atalanta 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5
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