Salernitana 0-2 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.65
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
47%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.85
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 26% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
7.61
1/2
6%
22.7
1/X
7%
15.8
X/1
9%
9.9
X/2
16%
3.91
X/X
12%
5.39
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.11
2/X
6%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
18%
+9.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
47%
Away Win
58%
-10.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.5pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 62%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -19%
1.10/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.28
+25% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -25%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 488 · 84%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
19.6 Crosses 20.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.78 xG 2.08
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
243 Passes 469
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 3-0 HT 2-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
03.05.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 3-3 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
09.11.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1 HT 1-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
24.04.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 2-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
11.12.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 4-0 HT 1-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
04.03.2004 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 1-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
0-2
AWAY Fiorentina
0.21 xG 2.05
27% Ball Possession 73%
5 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
126 Passes 514
57% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 38
11 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina beat Salernitana 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Salernitana had 27% of the ball to Fiorentina's 73%, shots finished 5-12, expected goals 0.21 to 2.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Salernitana and 2.33 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Fiorentina?

Salernitana 0-2 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 28%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 47%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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