Sassuolo 0-3 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.08
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 29% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.17
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
12%
4.9
X/2
13%
6.4
X/X
18%
4.33
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
11%
4.64
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.9pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.2pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +13%
1.42/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.40
+11% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +51%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
18.1 Crosses 16.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Lecce
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.49 xG 1.20
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
460 Passes 255
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2023 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
25.02.2023 Lecce Lecce 0-1 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
20.08.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
04.07.2020 Sassuolo Sassuolo 4-2 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
03.11.2019 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 2-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
30.05.2010 Lecce Lecce 0-0 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo
0-3
AWAY Lecce
0.59 xG 2.35
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 4
286 Passes 233
70% Pass Accuracy 69%
23 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sassuolo vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce ran out comfortable winners over Sassuolo 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 32% / 30% — and on the day Lecce made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sassuolo had 55% of the ball to Lecce's 45%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.59 to 2.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sassuolo and 0.83 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Sassuolo vs Lecce?

Sassuolo 0-3 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sassuolo vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo 38%, draw 32%, Lecce 30%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✗ Under 2.5
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