Hannover 96 1-2 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 21 Apr 2024

Hannover 96
1-2 HT 1-1
St. Pauli
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
39%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.82
Over 2.5
57%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.73
No
43%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.25
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.62
6+ Goals
11%
14.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.36
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
8%
6.23
X/2
14%
5.1
X/X
10%
4.42
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
32.0
2/2
18%
3.28
2/X
6%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.0 — our 13% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+6.0pp
23%
Draw
28%
-5.2pp
39%
Away Win
40%
-0.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
51%
-8.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
49%
+8.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.8pp
43%
BTTS No
46%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hannover 96 v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hannover 96 EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 43%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +14%
1.47/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.44
-12% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
308 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 76%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
18.0 Crosses 19.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.2

Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hannover 96
3W-2D-1L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.65 xG 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
285 Passes 403
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-0 HT 0-0 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 AL2
05.02.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-0 HT 2-0 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 AL2
23.07.2022 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 2-2 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
20.02.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-3 HT 0-1 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 AL2
11.09.2021 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 1-0 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
16.05.2021 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-2 HT 0-1 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 AL2

Hannover 96 1-2 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hannover 96
1-2
AWAY St. Pauli
1.34 xG 0.72
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
329 Passes 442
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli nicked a narrow win over Hannover 96 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 39%) promised a tight game; St. Pauli found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hannover 96 had 44% of the ball to St. Pauli's 56%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.34 to 0.72 — on chances, Hannover 96 could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hannover 96 had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hannover 96 and 0.83 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli?

Hannover 96 1-2 St. Pauli in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hannover 96 38%, draw 23%, St. Pauli 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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