Karlsruher SC 3-2 Hertha Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 21 Apr 2024

Karlsruher SC
3-2 HT 2-1
Hertha Berlin
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Karlsruher SC vs Hertha Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.59
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.41
No
47%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.01
2-3 Goals
40%
2.07
4-5 Goals
26%
2.57
6+ Goals
13%
5.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.7
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
15%
5.21
X/2
9%
7.34
X/X
10%
5.99
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.15
2/2
11%
4.34
2/X
10%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.15 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.9pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.9pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-3.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
67%
-14.1pp
47%
BTTS No
33%
+14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Karlsruher SC v Hertha Berlin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karlsruher SC EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +16%
1.76/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.35
+30% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
23.3 Crosses 18.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Karlsruher SC vs Hertha Berlin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karlsruher SC
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Hertha Berlin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.81 xG 2.27
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
429 Passes 292
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 2-2 HT 2-1 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
27.07.2014 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 0-1 HT 0-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin HAZ
13.02.2011 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 2-6 HT 1-0 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
21.09.2010 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 4-0 HT 2-0 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
23.05.2009 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 4-0 HT 2-0 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1
13.12.2008 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 4-0 HT 1-0 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL1

Karlsruher SC 3-2 Hertha Berlin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karlsruher SC
3-2
AWAY Hertha Berlin
0.59 xG 2.45
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
320 Passes 382
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Karlsruher SC vs Hertha Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karlsruher SC nicked a narrow win over Hertha Berlin 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Karlsruher SC as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Karlsruher SC had 46% of the ball to Hertha Berlin's 54%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.59 to 2.45 — on chances, Hertha Berlin could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hertha Berlin led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Karlsruher SC and 2.83 for Hertha Berlin.

What was the final score of Karlsruher SC vs Hertha Berlin?

Karlsruher SC 3-2 Hertha Berlin in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karlsruher SC vs Hertha Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karlsruher SC win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Karlsruher SC 46%, draw 27%, Hertha Berlin 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karlsruher SC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karlsruher SC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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