Araz Nahçıvan 0-2 Sebail FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.3pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.7pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 34%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -17%
0.80/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.47
-38% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Araz Nahçıvan
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Sebail FK
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
6 Corners 4
17.02.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 2-2 HT 1-2 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
02.12.2023 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-1 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
24.09.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-0 HT 1-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
POST-MATCH Araz Nahçıvan vs Sebail FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sebail FK saw off Araz Nahçıvan 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Araz Nahçıvan at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sebail FK led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Araz Nahçıvan and 1.33 for Sebail FK.

What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Sebail FK?

Araz Nahçıvan 0-2 Sebail FK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Sebail FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Araz Nahçıvan win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 41%, draw 24%, Sebail FK 35%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
21 Apr 2024
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