Al Ahli FC Dubai 4-1 Al Ittihad Kalba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UAE - League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.47
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.63
Over 2.5
51%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
6.21
2-3 Goals
38%
2.09
4-5 Goals
24%
2.55
6+ Goals
12%
5.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.21 — our 26% vs market 11.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
64%
-12.8pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.1pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
34%
+14.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
66%
-14.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.3pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli FC Dubai EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ittihad Kalba EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.93/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.60
+13% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +6%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
403 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
20.0 Crosses 16.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli FC Dubai
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Al Ittihad Kalba
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.43 xG 0.84
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
347 Passes 270
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2023 Al Ittihad Kalba Al Ittihad Kalba 1-3 HT 0-0 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai BAE
02.03.2023 Al Ittihad Kalba Al Ittihad Kalba 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai BAE
07.10.2022 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ittihad Kalba Al Ittihad Kalba BAE
07.05.2022 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai 2-1 HT 2-0 Al Ittihad Kalba Al Ittihad Kalba BAE
02.11.2021 Al Ittihad Kalba Al Ittihad Kalba 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai BAE
30.01.2021 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai 2-0 HT 2-0 Al Ittihad Kalba Al Ittihad Kalba BAE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahli FC Dubai
4-1
AWAY Al Ittihad Kalba
3.16 xG 1.17
68% Ball Possession 32%
17 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
582 Passes 241
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Ahli FC Dubai vs Al Ittihad Kalba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli FC Dubai cruised past Al Ittihad Kalba 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Ahli FC Dubai as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Al Ahli FC Dubai had 68% of the ball to Al Ittihad Kalba's 32%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 3.16 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahli FC Dubai had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Al Ahli FC Dubai and 0.50 for Al Ittihad Kalba.

What was the final score of Al Ahli FC Dubai vs Al Ittihad Kalba?

Al Ahli FC Dubai 4-1 Al Ittihad Kalba in the UAE - League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli FC Dubai vs Al Ittihad Kalba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli FC Dubai win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli FC Dubai 51%, draw 23%, Al Ittihad Kalba 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli FC Dubai), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli FC Dubai) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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