Khorfakkan 2-1 Baniyas SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UAE - League, 21 Apr 2024

Khorfakkan
2-1 HT 2-1
Baniyas SC
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
UAE - League – 2023/2024

Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.38
Over 2.5
50%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.02
2-3 Goals
34%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.75
6+ Goals
10%
7.22
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.02 — our 29% vs market 15.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.1pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Khorfakkan v Baniyas SC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Khorfakkan EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Baniyas SC EU Bookmakers 48%
-12% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.44/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.42
-21% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / -17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
273 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
22.6 Crosses 20.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Khorfakkan
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Baniyas SC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.48 xG 1.27
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
271 Passes 339
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Baniyas SC Baniyas SC 1-0 HT 0-0 Khorfakkan Khorfakkan BAE
27.01.2023 Khorfakkan Khorfakkan 1-2 HT 0-2 Baniyas SC Baniyas SC BAE
02.09.2022 Baniyas SC Baniyas SC 1-0 HT 0-0 Khorfakkan Khorfakkan BAE
05.04.2022 Khorfakkan Khorfakkan 4-2 HT 1-2 Baniyas SC Baniyas SC BAE
09.12.2021 Khorfakkan Khorfakkan 1-2 HT 1-0 Baniyas SC Baniyas SC BAELK
21.10.2021 Baniyas SC Baniyas SC 2-2 HT 2-1 Khorfakkan Khorfakkan BAE

Khorfakkan 2-1 Baniyas SC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Khorfakkan
2-1
AWAY Baniyas SC
0.79 xG 0.66
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 7
244 Passes 414
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 31
7 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Khorfakkan squeezed past Baniyas SC 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was Baniyas SC at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Khorfakkan had 37% of the ball to Baniyas SC's 63%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.79 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Baniyas SC led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Khorfakkan and 1.67 for Baniyas SC.

What was the final score of Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?

Khorfakkan 2-1 Baniyas SC in the UAE - League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Baniyas SC win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Khorfakkan 33%, draw 26%, Baniyas SC 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Baniyas SC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Baniyas SC) ✓ BTTS Yes
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