Brondby 2-1 Midtjylland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 21 Apr 2024

Brondby
2-1 HT 2-0
Midtjylland
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Denmark - Süperlig – 2023/2024

Brondby vs Midtjylland Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.75
Over 2.5
56%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.9
6+ Goals
10%
17.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.9 — our 27% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.89
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
15%
4.48
X/2
10%
6.77
X/X
10%
4.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
26.5
2/2
19%
5.16
2/X
9%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 7% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-6.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+6.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
53%
-9.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
47%
+9.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.0pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brondby v Midtjylland — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brondby EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
1.53/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.71
-4% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
391 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 71%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
19.7 Crosses 17.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.2

Brondby vs Midtjylland Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brondby
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Midtjylland
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.44 xG 1.88
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
350 Passes 380
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 33
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.02.2024 Brondby Brondby 1-0 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
20.08.2023 Midtjylland Midtjylland 0-1 HT 0-0 Brondby Brondby DAN
27.02.2023 Midtjylland Midtjylland 0-1 HT 0-0 Brondby Brondby DAN
29.08.2022 Brondby Brondby 0-2 HT 0-2 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
12.05.2022 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-2 HT 0-1 Brondby Brondby DAN
25.04.2022 Brondby Brondby 1-3 HT 1-2 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN

Brondby 2-1 Midtjylland — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brondby
2-1
AWAY Midtjylland
0.48 xG 1.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
320 Passes 336
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brondby vs Midtjylland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brondby edged past Midtjylland 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Brondby found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Brondby had 50% of the ball to Midtjylland's 50%, shots finished 7-19, expected goals 0.48 to 1.22 — on chances, Midtjylland could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brondby had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Brondby and 1.17 for Midtjylland.

What was the final score of Brondby vs Midtjylland?

Brondby 2-1 Midtjylland in the Denmark - Süperlig on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brondby vs Midtjylland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brondby win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Brondby 39%, draw 27%, Midtjylland 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brondby), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brondby) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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