UD Oliveirense 1-2 CF Os Belenenses — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 21 Apr 2024

UD Oliveirense
1-2 HT 0-1
CF Os Belenenses
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

UD Oliveirense vs CF Os Belenenses Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.91
Over 2.5
54%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.4
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.49
6+ Goals
11%
13.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.49 — our 26% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.1pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

UD Oliveirense v CF Os Belenenses — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 33%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.60/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.27
+27% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +78%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
307 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.2 Crosses 12.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

UD Oliveirense vs CF Os Belenenses Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
1W-0D-2L
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 0.82
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
335 Passes 290
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
10.12.2023 CF Os Belenenses 1-0 HT 1-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
20.05.2023 CF Os Belenenses 2-1 HT 2-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
15.01.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-1 HT 0-0 CF Os Belenenses POR2
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs CF Os Belenenses
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Os Belenenses edged past UD Oliveirense 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was UD Oliveirense at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, CF Os Belenenses led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for UD Oliveirense and 1.33 for CF Os Belenenses.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs CF Os Belenenses?

UD Oliveirense 1-2 CF Os Belenenses in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs CF Os Belenenses?

Before kick-off our model rated a UD Oliveirense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 44%, draw 26%, CF Os Belenenses 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (UD Oliveirense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (UD Oliveirense) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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