Vilaverdense 0-2 Maritimo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
49%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.84
6+ Goals
10%
16.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 30% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
31%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+6.6pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
48%
Away Win
54%
-5.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.4pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Maritimo EU Bookmakers 57%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
0.92/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.42
-3% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -29%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
292 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.4 Crosses 18.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vilaverdense
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Maritimo
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.77 xG 2.40
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
272 Passes 268
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
10.12.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 4-0 HT 1-0 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vilaverdense
0-2
AWAY Maritimo
0.62 xG 1.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
284 Passes 261
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vilaverdense vs Maritimo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo beat Vilaverdense 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Vilaverdense had 51% of the ball to Maritimo's 49%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 0.62 to 1.33.

What was the final score of Vilaverdense vs Maritimo?

Vilaverdense 0-2 Maritimo in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vilaverdense vs Maritimo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Vilaverdense 28%, draw 23%, Maritimo 48%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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