Celje 2-3 Domzale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.32
Draw
19%
4.81
Away
23%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.29
Over 2.5
62%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.67
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
29%
2.85
6+ Goals
12%
7.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
5%
2/1
12%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
71%
-13.9pp
19%
Draw
18%
+1.5pp
23%
Away Win
11%
+12.3pp
38%
Under 2.5
40%
-1.3pp
62%
Over 2.5
60%
+1.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.9pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celje EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Domzale EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.92/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.74
-9% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +19%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
390 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celje
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Domzale
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 Domzale Domzale 2-1 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVN
27.10.2023 Celje Celje 3-1 HT 1-0 Domzale Domzale SLVN
20.08.2023 Domzale Domzale 1-2 HT 0-1 Celje Celje SLVN
18.03.2023 Celje Celje 1-0 HT 0-0 Domzale Domzale SLVN
07.12.2022 Domzale Domzale 2-1 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVN
18.09.2022 Celje Celje 2-1 HT 0-1 Domzale Domzale SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celje
2-3
AWAY Domzale
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celje vs Domzale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Domzale squeezed past Celje 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Celje at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Celje had 68% of the ball to Domzale's 32%, shots finished 18-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celje had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Celje and 1.17 for Domzale.

What was the final score of Celje vs Domzale?

Celje 2-3 Domzale in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celje vs Domzale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celje win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Celje 57%, draw 19%, Domzale 23%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Celje) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celje) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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