Bodrum FK 2-1 Şanlıurfaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.65
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.43
6+ Goals
11%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 34% vs market 31.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.43
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.2
X/1
20%
3.77
X/2
8%
8.2
X/X
13%
4.52
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
12%
7.0
2/X
8%
16.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.6pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bodrum FK EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Şanlıurfaspor EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.21/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.08
-23% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
270 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
19.0 Crosses 18.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bodrum FK
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Şanlıurfaspor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.26 xG 0.48
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
215 Passes 323
69% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 8
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.12.2023 Şanlıurfaspor Şanlıurfaspor 0-2 HT 0-2 Bodrum FK Bodrum FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bodrum FK
2-1
AWAY Şanlıurfaspor
2.39 xG 0.18
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
282 Passes 226
72% Pass Accuracy 66%
24 Box Touches 10
13 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bodrum FK vs Şanlıurfaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bodrum FK nicked a narrow win over Şanlıurfaspor 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bodrum FK as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bodrum FK had 54% of the ball to Şanlıurfaspor's 46%, shots finished 8-5, expected goals 2.39 to 0.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bodrum FK's control.

What was the final score of Bodrum FK vs Şanlıurfaspor?

Bodrum FK 2-1 Şanlıurfaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bodrum FK vs Şanlıurfaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bodrum FK win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bodrum FK 46%, draw 28%, Şanlıurfaspor 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bodrum FK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bodrum FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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