Sakaryaspor 2-1 Keçiörengücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.13
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.74
6+ Goals
8%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 30% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.46
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.15
X/1
16%
4.14
X/2
10%
8.21
X/X
15%
4.66
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
9%
6.41
2/X
7%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-3.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.2pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 27%
+14% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.12/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.44
+11% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
344 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
17.2 Crosses 14.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sakaryaspor
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Keçiörengücü
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.58 xG 1.09
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
335 Passes 275
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2023 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 1-3 HT 1-1 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
05.02.2023 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
04.09.2022 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 2-1 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
20.01.2019 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 2-2 HT 2-1 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü S2-B
01.09.2018 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 1-1 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor S2-B
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sakaryaspor
2-1
AWAY Keçiörengücü
0.36 xG 1.25
57% Ball Possession 43%
6 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
487 Passes 345
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sakaryaspor vs Keçiörengücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sakaryaspor nicked a narrow win over Keçiörengücü 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sakaryaspor as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sakaryaspor had 57% of the ball to Keçiörengücü's 43%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.36 to 1.25 — the balance of chances actually favoured Keçiörengücü.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sakaryaspor had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Sakaryaspor and 1.20 for Keçiörengücü.

What was the final score of Sakaryaspor vs Keçiörengücü?

Sakaryaspor 2-1 Keçiörengücü in the Turkey - 1st Division on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sakaryaspor vs Keçiörengücü?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sakaryaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sakaryaspor 48%, draw 28%, Keçiörengücü 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sakaryaspor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sakaryaspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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