Morpeth Town 1-0 Workington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.47
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.15
Over
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
23%
2-3
45%
4-5
21%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-3.3pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.8pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-0.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.1pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morpeth Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Workington EU Bookmakers 43%
+5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.52/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.46
+5% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
274 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morpeth Town
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Workington
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
37% Ball Possession 63%
4 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
26.12.2024 Workington Workington 2-2 HT 0-1 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
05.10.2024 Workington Workington 3-1 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNFAT
09.12.2023 Workington Workington 2-2 HT 0-1 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
15.08.2023 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Workington Workington İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morpeth Town
1-0
AWAY Workington
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Morpeth Town vs Workington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Morpeth Town squeezed past Workington 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Morpeth Town found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Morpeth Town had 57% of the ball to Workington's 43%, shots finished 18-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Morpeth Town and 1.75 for Workington.

What was the final score of Morpeth Town vs Workington?

Morpeth Town 1-0 Workington in the England - Non League Premier on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morpeth Town vs Workington?

Before kick-off our model rated an Workington win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Morpeth Town 33%, draw 29%, Workington 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Workington) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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