Dundalk 1-1 Finn Harps — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.37
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
24%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.86
Over 2.5
56%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.19
No
50%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.12
2-3 Goals
36%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.48
6+ Goals
11%
13.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.48 — our 29% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
68%
-18.5pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.6pp
24%
Away Win
12%
+11.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
50%
-5.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
50%
+5.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.9pp
50%
BTTS No
58%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundalk EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 15%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.81/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/2.40
-19% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / -15%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
436 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundalk
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Finn Harps
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.16 xG 0.74
59% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
341 Passes 164
71% Pass Accuracy 57%
19 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
21.02.2025 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-1 HT 0-1 Dundalk Dundalk İR1
14.10.2022 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-2 HT 0-2 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
22.07.2022 Dundalk Dundalk 3-0 HT 3-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İRL
23.05.2022 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-1 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
28.02.2022 Dundalk Dundalk 3-0 HT 1-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İRL
01.10.2021 Finn Harps Finn Harps 2-2 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundalk
1-1
AWAY Finn Harps
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
16 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dundalk vs Finn Harps
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dundalk and Finn Harps couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Dundalk at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dundalk had 59% of the ball to Finn Harps's 41%, shots finished 16-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dundalk had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Dundalk and 0.50 for Finn Harps.

What was the final score of Dundalk vs Finn Harps?

Dundalk 1-1 Finn Harps in the Ireland - 1st Division on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundalk vs Finn Harps?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dundalk win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Dundalk 50%, draw 26%, Finn Harps 24%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dundalk) ✗ Over 2.5
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