Chapecoense 1-0 Athletic Club — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.9
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.02
6+ Goals
8%
19.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 33% vs market 30.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
49%
-9.3pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.0pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.5pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Club EU Bookmakers 28%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-3% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
316 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.4 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
1-0
AWAY Athletic Club
0.82 xG 1.12
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
306 Passes 357
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Athletic Club
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense squeezed past Athletic Club 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 32% / 28% — and on the day Chapecoense made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Chapecoense had 46% of the ball to Athletic Club's 54%, shots finished 10-20, expected goals 0.82 to 1.12.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Athletic Club?

Chapecoense 1-0 Athletic Club in the Brazil - Serie B on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Athletic Club?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chapecoense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 39%, draw 32%, Athletic Club 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chapecoense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chapecoense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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