AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Go Ahead Eagles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
3.67
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 23% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.69
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
14%
4.88
X/2
9%
7.78
X/X
13%
5.03
2/1
9%
23.3
2/2
16%
5.56
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles EU Bookmakers 30%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
2.44/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.68
-33% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +119%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
35.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
27.0 Crosses 18.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.67 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
421 Passes 304
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.10.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-2 HT 1-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
12.05.2024 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 0-3 HT 0-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
13.08.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 5-1 HT 2-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
25.01.2023 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 1-4 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
07.08.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
13.02.2022 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 1-4 HT 1-3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-1
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles
2.99 xG 1.71
46% Ball Possession 54%
30 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
378 Passes 451
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
45 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar and Go Ahead Eagles shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 46% of the ball to Go Ahead Eagles's 54%, shots finished 30-18, expected goals 2.99 to 1.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.83 for Go Ahead Eagles.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?

AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Go Ahead Eagles in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 43%, draw 26%, Go Ahead Eagles 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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