Miedz Legnica 3-2 Warta Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.42
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.27
No
53%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.77
6+ Goals
9%
16.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Miedz Legnica win — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
66%
-15.4pp
28%
Draw
21%
+7.2pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+8.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.1pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miedz Legnica EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Warta Poznan EU Bookmakers 16%
-8% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.96/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/2.42
+0% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -22%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
224 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miedz Legnica
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Warta Poznan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.10 xG 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
390 Passes 274
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.01.2025 Miedz Legnica Miedz Legnica 0-0 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan HAZ
04.10.2024 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 1-4 HT 0-4 Miedz Legnica Miedz Legnica POL1
13.02.2023 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 1-1 HT 0-0 Miedz Legnica Miedz Legnica POL
30.07.2022 Miedz Legnica Miedz Legnica 1-2 HT 1-1 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POL
27.06.2020 Miedz Legnica Miedz Legnica 0-0 HT 0-0 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POL1
29.09.2019 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 2-1 HT 0-0 Miedz Legnica Miedz Legnica POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miedz Legnica
3-2
AWAY Warta Poznan
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Miedz Legnica vs Warta Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Miedz Legnica nicked a narrow win over Warta Poznan 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Miedz Legnica as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Miedz Legnica had 58% of the ball to Warta Poznan's 42%, shots finished 14-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Warta Poznan led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.00 for Warta Poznan.

What was the final score of Miedz Legnica vs Warta Poznan?

Miedz Legnica 3-2 Warta Poznan in the Poland - 1st Division on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miedz Legnica vs Warta Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Miedz Legnica win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Miedz Legnica 51%, draw 28%, Warta Poznan 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Miedz Legnica) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Miedz Legnica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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