Luzern 1-2 Stade Ouchy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 21 May 2024

📅21/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.37
Draw
24%
4.95
Away
25%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
3.46
Over 2.5
54%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.49
No
50%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
8.75
2-3 Goals
37%
2.4
4-5 Goals
25%
2.36
6+ Goals
13%
3.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.56
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.8
X/1
20%
3.95
X/2
8%
16.45
X/X
9%
9.52
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
17.35
2/2
11%
10.2
2/X
7%
18.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.35 — our 11% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
69%
-18.0pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.8pp
26%
Away Win
14%
+11.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
25%
+20.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
75%
-20.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-13.0pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Stade Ouchy EU Bookmakers 17%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.76/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.09
-32% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +11%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 67%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
25.2 Crosses 9.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Stade Ouchy
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.48 xG 0.95
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
252 Passes 360
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.03.2024 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 2-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
01.02.2024 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 0-3 HT 0-2 Luzern Luzern İSV
30.07.2023 Luzern Luzern 2-1 HT 0-0 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-2
AWAY Stade Ouchy
1.87 xG 0.76
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
409 Passes 378
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
36 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Stade Ouchy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stade Ouchy squeezed past Luzern 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Luzern at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Luzern had 51% of the ball to Stade Ouchy's 49%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.87 to 0.76 — the balance of chances actually favoured Luzern.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Luzern had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Luzern and 1.00 for Stade Ouchy.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Stade Ouchy?

Luzern 1-2 Stade Ouchy in the Switzerland - Super League on 21/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Stade Ouchy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Luzern 51%, draw 24%, Stade Ouchy 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Luzern) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ Over 2.5
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