Stade Ouchy 2-1 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.13
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
58%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.38
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.95
6+ Goals
9%
8.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
7.37
1/2
5%
21.3
1/X
11%
15.05
X/1
7%
10.25
X/2 EV+ ✗
29%
4.08
X/X
6%
5.78
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.06
2/X
4%
14.45
Value flag · X/2 at 4.08 — our 29% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
21%
+0.4pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.0pp
58%
Away Win
55%
+2.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stade Ouchy EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 60%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.07/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.33
-40% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -63% / +63%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
266 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 80%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
15.2 Crosses 20.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stade Ouchy
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Luzern
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.94 xG 2.60
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
378 Passes 252
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2024 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 0-3 HT 0-2 Luzern Luzern İSV
30.07.2023 Luzern Luzern 2-1 HT 0-0 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stade Ouchy
2-1
AWAY Luzern
0.97 xG 2.24
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
322 Passes 251
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stade Ouchy vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stade Ouchy edged past Luzern 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Luzern carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Stade Ouchy had 55% of the ball to Luzern's 45%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.97 to 2.24 — on chances, Luzern could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Luzern led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Stade Ouchy and 2.50 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Stade Ouchy vs Luzern?

Stade Ouchy 2-1 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stade Ouchy vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated an Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Stade Ouchy 21%, draw 21%, Luzern 58%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Luzern) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ Over 2.5
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